USD per ounce
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USD per ounce
Loading the latest price and trend.
Summarizing this year’s path from the latest daily bars.
The paragraph below is background written on 15 October 2026. The daily script updates prices, charts, and key levels only.
In mid-October the immediate pressure came from U.S. inflation and rate expectations. September CPI was 3.7% year on year, and core CPI was 2.6%, both above forecasts at the time. A stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields weigh on gold because it pays no interest. CME pricing lifted the chance of another 25-basis-point hike at the 27–28 October meeting from about 22% to about 44%. Slower official buying, alongside still-present ETF demand, is the other side of why the price has not fallen in a straight line.
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The energy shock is still feeding into prices. The Fed hiked 25 basis points in September, its first increase since 2023. After CPI again beat forecasts, another October hike moved back into the pricing. Higher rate expectations are the main drag on gold.
The dollar index was near a 19-month high. The 10-year yield touched about 5.3%, so real yields were elevated. Gold costs more for overseas buyers, and bonds offer a meaningful coupon, which reduces gold’s relative appeal.
Gold ETF holdings had risen to about a 12-month high, and September was the strongest month since 2022. That buying kept the price from falling in step with yields. If the price keeps sliding, momentum money can also turn into outflows.
Central-bank purchases were a major floor in earlier years. Net purchases in the first quarter were only about 16 tonnes, a sharp slowdown, and Türkiye sold about 60 tonnes in March. Official demand has not disappeared, but it is no longer enough on its own to offset the macro pressure. The 4,000 area remains the round number markets keep discussing.
If the Fed hikes again, or the chair sounds hawkish, 4,000 comes into play. If the meeting plays down further hikes, there is room above 4,200.
Price did not leave this band over the two weeks into mid-October. A close under 4,050 breaks the floor. A close back above 4,200 would leave the post-CPI weakness behind.
The 50-day and 200-day averages are recalculated from the GC daily series on each update.